Use of age and milk production data to improve the ability of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test results to predict Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis fecal culture status

Department of Population Health and Reproduction School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA. rdberghaus@ucdavis.edu

Cows from 2 California dairies were tested for paratuberculosis at the end of lactation by using fecal culture and a commercially available serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test kit. Individual cow characteristics and production variables were evaluated along with ELISA testing results as predictors of fecal culture status. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, age and a herd-standardized version of 305-day mature equivalent (305 ME) milk production were significant predictors of fecal culture status after adjusting for herd, quarter of the study year, and ELISA sample-to-positive (S/P) ratio. The area under a nonparametric receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly greater for a multivariable model that included age and the level of milk production when compared with a model without these covariates. In conclusion, consideration of cow-level covariates was useful as an aid in predicting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) fecal culture status. For a given ELISA S/P ratio, older cows and those with lower 305 ME milk production relative to other cows in the herd were significantly more likely to be shedding MAP in their feces at the end of lactation.